One common topic that comes up in WDW chat groups is “Who has the best WDW Crowd Calendar?” People use these calendars to help determine when to schedule their Walt Disney World vacation, so having a good one is key. So what makes a Crowd Calendar good? Three things:
- Accuracy
- Accuracy
- And accuracy!!!
If you end up relying on a Crowd Calendar that just isn’t very accurate, you can end up with more crowds than you bargained for!
To help the community, we put several Crowd Calendars to the test to see which one did the best job of predicting crowd levels. We judged each calendar based upon how well its prediction matched the actual crowd level, based upon the actual average wait time. Specifically, we looked at the coefficient of correlation between the prediction and reality.
For those who aren’t stats nerds, correlation measures how well one factor (i.e. the Crowd Calendar prediction) is able to predict the value of another factor (i.e the average crowd level). If a calendar can predict the average crowd level with 100% accuracy, the correlation would be 1. If a calendar couldn’t predict the wait times at all, the correlation would be 0. The closer to 1 you are, the better job the calendar did.
Our Methodology
We started by choosing a group of popular Crowd Calendars to examine. Specifically, we did a google search of “WDW crowd calendars” and picked the ones that showed up at the top of the search.
Next, we decided to focus on Magic Kingdom. This is more to save time, since we do have day jobs! However, we figured that this was fine. How well a Crowd Calendar can predict wait times as MK, the most popular of the WDW theme parks, would provide a good barometer of how well it would do as a whole.
Finally, we looked at the time period from January 1st through mid-February. Most of the calendars we looked at still had predictions going back to the start of the year, so this provided us with a good set of data. Plus, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict crowd levels in December. We figured January and February would provide a better test of a calendar’s predictive value. There is enough variation to give a good cross section of busy days and light days.
DISCLAIMER: We were given no freebies or other incentives from the various Crowd Calendars we evaluated. Nor do we have any affiliate agreements with any of them. This represents what we found without any conflict of interests.
The Results
THE BEST: Thrill Data and Touring Plans
RECOMMENDED: Thrill Data Predictive Crowd Calendar (correlation = 0.73)
Thrill Data is our go-to site for historical statistics on wait times, Lightning Lane availability, ticket pricing, and more. With all of that data in their database, it is no surprise that they are able do a good job at predicting crowd levels.
Here is what they say about their crowd calendar:
This calendar is a predictive model of future wait times developed based on past data collections and factors derived by the Thrill Data team. Use this information to help guide decisions on time periods when to visit the park. The number shown in each calendar day box is the predicted average wait time for that date. Click on any date to see the specific wait times for the most recent occurence of that date.
Keep in mind that lower wait times do not indicate an empty park. It means that wait times are lower than other points in the year, but they may still be significant.
Two other things that we love about their Crowd Calendar:
- It’s free
- They track how well their predictions match the actual average wait time, providing accountability
The only downside is that the Thrill Data website isn’t the most responsive with all of the adware that they include on their site. However, since it is free, they do have to pay the bills somehow, so we can’t really fault them too much for that.
ALSO GREAT: Touring Plans (correlation = 0.64)
Touring Plans is probably the granddaddy of data driven theme park analysis. They have been in this space for decades, so it is no surprise that they would be at the top of the heap. They are noted for having many different connections with academia, allowing them to tap into some of the best and brightest minds in statistics and operations research. Here is what they have to say about their predictive modeling:
The crowd levels on our Crowd Calendar reflect our wait time forecasts for each date and park. Those forecasts are based on 57 million wait times we have collected over the past 15 years. We account for special events, holidays, and other factors that bring people to the parks, and we rank each date from least-crowded (1) to most-crowded (10) based on wait times.
Unfortunately, all of that expertise comes at a price… specifically, in order to get full access to all of their analytics you have to sign up for a paid subscription… currently $24.95/year. However, this not only gives you access to their Crowd Calendar, but also to their custom itinerary planning tools and other expert advice on how to maximize your time in the parks. Having been a satisfied customer for years, we feel like the expense is well worth it.
Finally, unlike Thrill Data, their website is well designed, very modern looking, and super responsive. Clearly they put your subscription fee to good use.
HONORABLE MENTION: Magic Guides (correlation = 0.65)
Magic Guides’ predictions were about on par with Touring Plans in terms of correlation. Plus, unlike Touring Plans, it is free to access. So why is it only an Honorable Mention?
Unfortunately, they removed their January predictions from their website, so there was no way to see how well they did during that month. As a result, we were only able to evaluate February’s data. With that limited data set, they did look good, but it wasn’t an equal comparison.
Besides, at a philosophical level, removing their historical predictions shows that they aren’t as committed to transparency. While they certainly are under no obligation to publish this data, by not providing it, the general public has no way to assess how good they are. They seem to have a good product based upon the limited data that they DO provide, so why not brag about it?
OKAY BUT NOT GREAT
Undercover Tourist (correlation = 0.47)
The Park Prodigy (correlation = 0.36)
WDW Prep School (correlation = 0.35)
Love the Mouse Travel (correlation = 0.31)
These were all in what we call the “muddled middle”. Correlations in this range generally show a weak relationship between predictions and reality. On average, they all did an okay job of forecasting average wait times, but there was too much variation for them to be considered consistently reliable. They might get you into the general ballpark, so to speak, but be prepared for some surprises.
One flaw they all had was that none of them provided a numerical prediction by individual park. Their predictions were for WDW as a whole. That probably hurt their overall accuracy.
In fairness, while Undercover Tourist didn’t provide a specific, measurable numeric prediction, they did indicate their recommendation for which park to visit on a given day. However, it wasn’t clear if that was based on a comparison between that park and other parks for that given day, or a comparison of that park’s crowds across multiple days. So that took away from its predictive value.
TERRIBLE: Ticket and Lightning Lane Multi Pass Pricing
In a previous article, we talked about how LLMP pricing didn’t seem to correlate very well to average wait time. When we add in February data, this relationship got even worse. And overall ticket prices were just as bad as predicting crowd levels.
There is no way that I would assume that just because tickets cost more that wait times will be higher.
Now you would think with demand pricing, the relationship would be stronger. However, there are two factors that probably hurt its predictive value:
- Disney sets pricing months and months in advance. Therefore, they are setting prices with only a limited amount of data.
- The prices of the tickets themselves probably influences crowd levels. People might adjust the days of their visit based upon which days are cheaper.
But regardless of the reason, you are better off using any of the Crowd Calendars mentioned above, as they will be far better than looking at ticket prices.
Wrap Up
So there you have it… our evaluation of WDW Crowd Calendars based upon research-based statistical modeling. While no Crowd Calendar is 100% perfect, if you stick to one of our two top selections, you’ll be able to get a pretty good idea of how crowded the parks are going to be on your next visit!
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